Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s credit outlook from stable to positive while retaining the country’s long-term issuer default rating at ‘B’, citing stronger foreign exchange reserves, easing inflation and continued economic reforms.

The Federal Ministry of Finance disclosed this in a statement issued on Saturday, October 10, 2026, by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele.

According to the ministry, Fitch announced the decision on October 9, noting that sustained reform implementation could support a future rating upgrade.

A positive outlook does not mean Nigeria’s credit rating has already been upgraded. Rather, it signals the possibility of an upgrade if the improvements identified by the agency continue.

Foreign Reserves Rise To $54.9bn

The ministry said Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves stood at $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, compared with $32 billion in mid-April 2024.

It attributed the increase to stronger formal foreign exchange transactions, portfolio investment inflows, higher export receipts and remittances.

Fitch also projected a current account surplus equivalent to 6.4 per cent of gross domestic product in 2026, indicating an improvement in the country’s external position.

The agency’s assessment also highlighted greater flexibility in the naira exchange rate and progress in reducing inflation.

Average inflation is projected to fall to 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level, according to the ministry’s account of Fitch’s forecasts.

Fitch Projects 4.3% Economic Growth

Fitch expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2026, compared with 4 per cent in 2025, with growth projected to remain above 4 per cent in 2027 and 2028.

The agency expects non-oil activities to remain the main driver of expansion.

The ministry also said crude oil production had met Nigeria’s OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026.

It added that increased domestic refining was helping to reduce refined petroleum imports and demand for foreign exchange.

Tax Reforms, Debt Levels Under Review

On public finances, Fitch expects Nigeria’s tax reforms to improve non-oil revenue collection.

The agency projects general government debt to average 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, below the 56 per cent median for countries in the ‘B’ rating category.

Fitch also recognised the depth of Nigeria’s domestic debt market and the banking sector’s recapitalisation exercise. The ministry said many banks had capital adequacy ratios above 20 per cent, exceeding regulatory minimums.

However, the government acknowledged that significant challenges remain, including inflation above levels in comparable countries, weak revenue generation relative to the size of the economy and high debt-servicing costs.

Government Targets Further Rating Improvement

The ministry said the Fitch decision followed other positive developments in Nigeria’s credit profile in 2026.

S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’ in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised the country’s outlook from stable to positive in August.

FTSE Russell also restored Nigeria to Frontier Market status, effective September 21, 2026.

Oyedele said the government remained committed to sustaining reforms in foreign exchange management, tax administration, public spending, debt management and economic diversification.

He added that the administration’s longer-term ambition was to move Nigeria towards investment-grade status, arguing that sustained reforms could reduce borrowing costs, attract private investment and support job creation.

The ministry said Fitch identified sustained disinflation, stronger external reserves, continued reform implementation and improved non-oil revenue mobilisation as factors that could support a future positive rating action.

It stressed that the government’s focus remained on translating macroeconomic improvements into better living standards, employment opportunities and support for small businesses.

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