How prepared is Nigeria for a hotter and potentially more dangerous season?
As a powerful climate pattern strengthens in the Pacific, researchers warn that extreme heat could claim hundreds of thousands of additional lives worldwide, with Nigeria facing the highest projected national toll.
The warning raises a pressing question for a country where millions of people work outdoors, electricity supply remains unreliable and access to cooling can be limited.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in its October 2026 climate outlook, forecasts that El Niño will intensify towards a peak around December, bringing above-average temperatures across large parts of the world and increasing the risk of droughts and floods in different regions.
Beyond these shifting weather patterns lies a more troubling human consequence: the threat extreme heat poses to public health, livelihoods and food security.
Nigeria at the Centre of the Heat Threat
A report by the Climate Impact Lab estimates that the current El Niño could contribute to approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027, compared with an average year.
Nigeria alone could record an estimated 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027. Sudan, Niger and Chad are also expected to face substantial increases in heat-related mortality.
Notably, these figures are research projections, not confirmed fatalities. They draw on seasonal temperature forecasts and evidence of how heat affects mortality across different regions, taking account of variations in local climate and people’s ability to cope with high temperatures.
For Nigeria, the danger extends beyond uncomfortable afternoons. Extreme heat can strain the body, worsen existing health conditions and make it harder for people to work safely.
Farmers, construction workers, street traders, transport workers and others who spend long hours outdoors may have limited opportunities to escape high temperatures. Older people, young children and people with underlying health conditions are also particularly vulnerable.
Understanding the Phenomenon
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern within the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a cycle involving changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific.
During El Niño, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than average. This alters atmospheric circulation and shifts rainfall and temperature patterns across different parts of the world.
A particularly strong event is commonly described as a Super El Niño, although the term does not have one universally established scientific threshold.
The latest outlook forecasts substantial warming in the central equatorial Pacific during the final months of 2026, with the event expected to peak around December. The developing episode could rank among the strongest observed since records began in the mid-20th century.
El Niño does not affect every country in the same way. Its influence depends on geography, the season and other climate patterns. Some regions may experience prolonged dry conditions, while others face heavier rainfall and flooding.
The phenomenon also differs from human-caused climate change. El Niño is a natural climate fluctuation, but it can temporarily amplify global temperatures against the background of long-term warming caused largely by greenhouse gas emissions.
Why the Heat Could Prove Deadly
The danger is not determined by temperature alone. Rather, poverty, access to electricity, housing conditions, healthcare and the availability of drinking water may all influence how people withstand the extreme heat.
However, researchers warn that the developing climate conditions could bring more extremely hot days than would occur in a normal year. Low-income communities may face greater risks because they often have fewer resources to protect themselves.
For households without reliable electricity, switching on a fan or using air conditioning may not always be an option. People living in poorly ventilated buildings may struggle to find relief, while outdoor workers may have little choice but to continue earning a living despite dangerous conditions.
The consequences can extend to food production and household finances. Prolonged heat and changing rainfall patterns can affect crop growth, livestock and water availability. When agricultural productivity declines, farming households may lose income while consumers face higher food prices.
These effects will vary across locations. El Niño does not automatically cause drought or crop failure everywhere, making local weather forecasts essential for identifying the greatest risks.
Africa Faces Contrasting Climate Threats
Across Africa, the effects of a strong El Niño can differ sharply between regions.
The latest climate outlook points to an increased likelihood of above-average rainfall across parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, raising concerns about flooding in vulnerable areas. Meanwhile, El Niño-related shifts in rainfall can increase the risk of dry conditions elsewhere on the continent.
These contrasting threats create different challenges for communities already coping with limited resources. Heavy rainfall can damage homes, roads and farmland, while prolonged dry spells can reduce agricultural output and place pressure on water supplies.
In Southern Africa, El Niño has historically been associated with drought and reduced maize production. In East Africa, it can contribute to wetter conditions, although the outcome also depends on other climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole.
West Africa faces a different concern: the health consequences of extreme heat. Limited access to cooling, inadequate infrastructure and widespread outdoor employment can leave many people exposed when temperatures rise.
The continent’s varied climate risks underscore the need for locally tailored preparation rather than a single response for every country.
Preparing Before the Heat Peaks
The World Meteorological Organization has warned that the window for preparing for El Niño’s impacts remains open, but governments must act before extreme weather conditions escalate into humanitarian emergencies.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the developing event could be unprecedented in strength, with sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific potentially reaching 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027. She warned that its effects could continue long after the event reaches its peak.
Saulo stressed that powerful El Niño events do not inevitably lead to humanitarian disasters, noting that scientific forecasts and early-warning systems can help save lives and protect livelihoods. She called for urgent, coordinated action, particularly to safeguard vulnerable communities.
For Nigeria, this means strengthening heat-warning systems, communicating risks in accessible languages and ensuring that health facilities can respond to heat-related emergencies. Authorities should also work with local communities to identify people most exposed to extreme temperatures, including outdoor workers, older people and households with limited access to electricity and cooling.
Employers and public authorities can help reduce exposure by providing drinking water and shaded rest areas, encouraging regular breaks and adjusting outdoor work schedules during the hottest periods where practical.
Public awareness is equally important. People should avoid strenuous activity during the hottest hours when possible, drink water regularly and seek cooler environments when they feel unwell. Confusion, fainting or very high body temperature can signal a medical emergency requiring immediate assistance.
The WMO’s warning is clear: forecasts provide an opportunity to prepare, but that opportunity must translate into practical action. For Nigeria, acting early could help reduce the human cost of extreme heat.
A Warning That Demands Action
Super El Niño is a reminder that a climate event unfolding thousands of kilometres away can have consequences far beyond the Pacific Ocean. Through its influence on atmospheric circulation, temperatures and rainfall, it can reshape the conditions in which people live, work and grow food.
For Nigeria, the warning presents an opportunity to strengthen public health preparedness, improve access to reliable climate information and identify communities that need protection most urgently.
The world may not be able to prevent a naturally occurring El Niño from developing, but it can take steps to reduce the harm it causes. The real test will be whether warnings become action before the heat reaches its peak.
By Musekir Faisat Omolara
